Driver and Team Movements as we enter the silly season

The past week produced some very significant driver announcements in Formula 1, and tucked in among them were confirmations that helped to fill the gaps on the 2018 entry list.

And while there's still a long way to go before there's a complete picture, attention has already turned to 2019, when all hell is likely to break loose on the driver market.

The news that Renault doesn't want to supply Red Bull beyond next season, leaving Honda as the only option for the Milton Keynes team, has only added to the fun.

Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo are now more motivated than ever to look further afield. Team boss Christian Horner is still hoping to keep Renault, even if its hand has to be forced.

A couple of years ago, the French manufacturer signed a new and lucrative deal with Bernie Ecclestone to help pay for its return as a works team, and one of the conditions was that Red Bull continued to have an engine supply for five years.

Sources who should know suggest that there's no way out of the commitment for Renault.

Contract extensions were confirmed for Valtteri Bottas at Mercedes and Sergio Perez at Force India, while the temporary loan of Carlos Sainz by Red Bull to Renault was finally sorted out.

        

In all three cases the deals are for 2018 only, adding to the list of drivers who will be free to move, and teams that might have vacancies, in 2019.

Perhaps the most intriguing situation is that of Bottas, who has only been given one more year by Mercedes. Clearly the team that is top of every driver's wish list wants to keep its options open, but it's a two-way street – Bottas also has the freedom to move.

Toto Wolff has been instrumental in building Bottas' career, and obviously he will be torn if Verstappen or Ricciardo are ready to sign up with Mercedes for 2019, and – assuming that Lewis Hamilton is staying – that means he can't keep the Finn.

However, if Bottas can parachute into Ferrari, everyone wins. Would Sebastian Vettel see Ricciardo, Verstappen or Bottas as the most acceptable teammate? Bottas has to be on the Scuderia's list. He's shown both on-track performance and a team player attitude, and the latter is certainly a priority at Ferrari.

Fernando Alonso?

  

But all that is a long way off still. The next piece in the 2018 puzzle that will fall into place is Fernando Alonso extending his stay at McLaren.

Zak Brown made it clear over the Singapore GP weekend that a deal is not far away, and there's also a belief that it might be good form to wait until after Honda's home race in Suzuka before any announcement on Alonso's future.

Deals for top-line drivers on mega money are always complicated, and this one more so, because it looks likely that Renault will also be involved, and will perhaps in effect pay part of his salary.

Alonso has been a Renault man twice previously, so it's logical that he now becomes an ambassador for the company, figuring in Spanish TV ads and so on, even though he's not actually driving for the works team.

McLaren aside, three other teams still have seats open for 2018.

The consensus is that Daniil Kvyat will stay at Toro Rosso and be joined by Pierre Gasly, but neither has been 100 percent confirmed.

Gasly's prospects would have been enhanced had he been able to do the last few races of 2017, assuming that Sainz gone early to Renault. There remains a chance that STR could spring a surprise and take someone from outside the Red Bull programme, but it looks unlikely at this stage.

Robert Kubica?

    

The most attractive seat still open is that at Williams. Felipe Massa made it clear in Singapore that he would he happy to stay, but only if the team shows that it wants him and makes an early decision; he doesn't want to be a last resort, but the list of possible replacements is growing.